Friday, September 21, 2012

The Giants Are Coming: Tentative Western Oil Majors Line Up for Myanmar Hydrocarbon Glory


Posted on Sep. 21, 2012

The Giants Are Coming: Tentative Western Oil Majors <p>Line Up for Myanmar Hydrocarbon Glory
Since President Obama’s easing of sanctions against the Southeast Asian country in July, American as well as foreign companies are flocking to Myanmar for business -- all sectors are on the table including banking, insurance, pharmacy, manufacturing, services and energy.
General Electric was the first American company to set foot in Myanmar after sanctions were lifted and secured a medical equipment deal with two hospitals in just a week after Obama made his announcement. Other American companies seeking investment opportunities in Myanmar include Caterpillar, Citibank, Kraft Foods, Ford, Bell Helicopter, Hewlett-Packard and Arrow Technologies. Last week, MasterCard said it had signed a deal with a Myanmar bank that it hopes will pave the way for electronic payments in a poor country where most transactions are made in cash. The list continues to grow almost daily.
And in a sign of things to come, Singapore Airlines announced on September 4 that it will start a daily service to Yangon (Rangoon) in October to meet growing business and tourist demand for flights to Myanmar's largest city. Also, this month, Japan’s Nippon Airways joined airlines from Thailand, China, India, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam, which have already resumed direct flights to Myanmar since economic and political reforms began.
Financing is also coming to Myanmar. The World Bank recently announced that it will resume lending to Myanmar for the first time in nearly 25 years and has opened an office in Yangon. Asian Development Bank (ADB) also recently opened offices in Yangon. Additionally, Japan has extended nearly $900 million in loans to Myanmar.
But the sector that the Myanmar government is banking on to bring much needed revenue to modernize and rejuvenate its anemic and impoverished economy is oil and gas. More poignantly, analysts point to natural gas as the main focus of foreign investment in the coming years.
However much about Myanmar’s oil and gas is a mystery.
Conflicting reserve data
For starters, there is a problem with securing good geological data in Myanmar. A lot of the data already on hand was collected with old and unreliable equipment, a Yangon-based investment manager told Interfax in August.
Also, the country’s reserves vary depending on who you talk to. Myanmar’s proved gas reserves were placed at 11.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of 2010, or 0.2 percent of the world’s total according to the BP Statistical Review. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lists Myanmar’s proved natural gas reserves as of 2010 at 10 Tcf, placing their gas reserve ranking at 37th globally. However, Myanmar is more hopeful. Myanmar’s Minister of Energy Than Htay said in January that his country’s natural gas reserves are at 22.5 Tcf.
Myanmar currently produces 19,600 barrels per day of crude oil and 1.475 billion cubic feet (Bcf) a day of natural gas, Myanmar’s Ministry of Energy Planning Department said in March. The ministry also claims that the country’s proved oil reserves total 104 million barrels onshore and 35 million offshore. The EIA ranked Myanmar’s natural gas production at 36th globally in 2010 and crude oil production at 65th.
So, if Myanmar is not hydrocarbon rich, what’s all the fuss about? The fuss is over the lure of the unknown. Lack of exploration work during the years that Myanmar was under Western sanctions means much is unknown about the country’s reserves and new discoveries are still being found. For example, Burma Petroleum Company, a joint venture with Chinese oil major Sinopec and state-owned Myanmar Oil & Gas Enterprise (MOGE), confirmed a major gas discovery in January. Myanmar state media earlier reported that the Chinese-led company has discovered reserves of 909 Bcf of natural gas and 7.16 million barrels of condensate in central Myanmar. The discovery was made at the Pahtolon oil field. Further tests are being conducted.
Myanmar, in an effort to feed the energy feeding frenzy of American, Western and Asian companies, is ready for business and opening up tenders.
“Since the sanctions have been eased by the US, the UK, the Western powers, the giant companies are interested; they come to my ministry daily to discuss how they could participate,” Than Htay told reporters in Yangon on August 26. “Shell is inquiring, BP from the UK is also coming to discuss. There are many giant firms coming.”
“The oil industry is a technology and capital intensive industry, but we are very poor so we need to seek foreign investment and we definitely need to collaborate with the international oil companies and need to see their investment,” he said.
Myanmar already held an energy tender for 18 oil and gas exploration blocks in July 2011 -- before the easing of US sanctions. It was the first formal bid held in five years. Before that tender, companies had to enter into private discussions with the government for direct block awards. Some of the companies that entered into these agreements and have been or are currently operating offshore Myanmar include French oil major Total, Malaysia’s Petronas and Rimbunam, South Korea’s Daewoo, Thailand’s PTT-Exploration & Production (PPT-EP), China’s CNOOC and CNPC, India’s Essar, GAIL and ONGC, Australia’s Danford Equities, Russia’s Sun Itera Oil & Gas, and Silver Wave Energy whose parent company is based in Singapore.
Most Western oil firms were conspicuously absent from the July bidding however. The energy department short-listed bidders and invited selected firms to review geological and geo-physical data of the 18 onshore blocks.
In January Myanmar awarded 10 onshore blocks to eight of these firms from the tender. The Myanmar Times reported that countries in Southeast Asia bagged most of the awards since interest from major state-linked Chinese players was lukewarm, providing the way for lesser know companies to secure blocks. Malaysia’s Petronas secured a block, as did Thailand’s PPT-EP. India’s Jubilant Energy also secured one production sharing block as well as a Switzerland-based company, a Russian company, an Indonesian company, a smaller Chinese firm and a Hong Kong listed firm.
Myanmar failed to strike deals with the remaining eight blocks since they were not seen as lucrative.
MOGE corruption concerns delay upcoming tender
Another oil and gas tender creating considerable media buzz and speculation was set for later this month. The Myanmar Ministry of Energy said 29 offshore blocks would be offered alongside 34 onshore blocks in the next bidding round. It would be the first opportunity in at least 15 years for US oil companies to participate in Myanmar.
However, news broke on September 5 that Myanmar delayed the tender to meet transparency standards of Western oil majors. A Myanmar government official stated that the tender was postponed after several oil companies (ConocoPhillips, Hess, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, BG Group, and Australia’s Woodside Petroleum) approached the government with their concerns.
The fly in the ointment that delayed the tender was MOGE’s lack of transparency. MOGE indeed has a horrible track record, one that makes international human rights groups stay awake at night. In fact, according to Transparency International, Myanmar ranks just behind Somalia and North Korea as the world’s most corrupt country in its 2011 corruption index and the country’s rule of law was given a 3-percentile rank.
All foreign firms investing in the Myanmar oil and gas sector are required to take on a local partner and enter into a production sharing contract and partnership with MOGE, which oversees licensing and holds a majority stake in all onshore and offshore blocks.
Allegations against MOGE abound. Derek Mitchell, then-US special envoy to Myanmar, voiced his concerns to a key US Senate Committee during his ambassadorial confirmation hearing on June 28.
“The issue of MOGE is one that we are looking very carefully at,” he said. “We have concerns about this enterprise and its transparency and the corruption that is associated with it through reports that we have. There are particular concerns here with connections to the military and such.”
Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi warned the International Labor Organization that MOGE “lacks both transparency and accountability at the present.”
However, Western oil majors, US diplomats and Nobel Peace Prize winners aren’t the only ones to level accusations against Myanmar’s oil and gas industry. Its citizens also take aim.
In May protests broke out in Yangon over power outages and the exporting of Myanmar gas abroad. Myanmar gas is exported to generate power in other countries despite the fact that roughly 75 percent of its population doesn’t have access to electricity from the national grid. Yet, it appears that the new Myanmar government takes these concerns seriously now.
Last month the government decided to set aside adequate quantities of natural gas for domestic use, though local media reported that it will not be available until 2016-2017. The government also secured agreements to set aside gas from Rakhine state from the controversial Myanmar-China gas pipeline that is set to come online by the second half of next year.
How Myanmar appeases both its citizens who have their first taste of freedom in decades, and willing but anxious oil companies remains to be seen. Hopefully, Myanmar’s government, after decades of isolation and economic hardship, will learn lessons from the past and play ball at home and on the world stage.

Suu Kyi to young people: Don’t ‘just sit in front of the ’net.’

Young peace advocates no longer had to imagine Aung San Suu Kyi behind the closed doors of house arrest. The Nobel laureate was in Washington this week to receive the Congressional Gold Medal from the president, and she stopped by the Newseum on Thursday for an interactive question-and-answer session with high school and college students.
Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, center with scarf, answers questions from student during an Amnesty International event at the Newseum on Sept. 20, 2012, in Washington. (Bill O'Leary - The Washington Post)

She cautiously took the stage in her slate-blue traditional Burmese dress and spoke with a restrained steeliness about the pursuit of peace against despotic governments and open communication across cultural borders. She began her speech saying she arrived to “pass the torch” of peace advocacy to the younger generation, who will “uncover the root cause” of political oppression.
“The seed of hatred is fear,” Suu Kyi said. “It is fear that leads to dislike and hatred. What the young people must do is try to eradicate fear."
Suu Kyi received thousands of submitted questions online, as a testament to her growing icon status. She weaved in practical advice amid her talk about the virtues of nonviolence in the political arena.
“When something troubles me, I think to myself, after 24 hours, this will seem less serious.”
She also encouraged young people to read and “not just sit in front of the ’net.”
One audience member asked about her personal sacrifice and touched upon her 24-plus-year struggle to work with the Burmese military junta. In 1990, Burmese authorities refused to recognize the parliamentary election victory of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy political party and rejected her appeal for a civilian-led government. On a personal level, Suu Kyi was subjected to house arrest and unable to see her family, including her now-deceased husband, for years.
“My fight was long, but not lonely because of people like you fighting for me,” she said. “I have to say that I’ve never thought that I was making any kind of sacrifice. I always thought I was following a path that I chose.”
Through the years, Suu Kyi has remained steadfast in what she said is a request for “funding, advice and engagement” from the U.S. government to help Burma build democratic institutions.
 “We have lived under dictatorship for half a century, and getting out of a particular mind-set is not easy.... We look to the U.S. [as an example], as they have always been a champion of democracy.”
Audience members also asked Suu Kyi to connect her struggle for democracy to current conflicts, including the Arab Spring uprisings.
“I do not understand people who believe violence is a legitimate way to human rights,” she replied. “You are undermining the foundation of human rights. You should do it through your ability to resist violence at every stage of the way.”
Pyotr Verzilov, the husband of Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, one of the arrested members of Russian punk rock band Pussy Riot, and his daughter Gera presented the democracy leader with flowers. Verzilov was in town to meet with U.S. lawmakers in support of sanctions on Russian officials.
“I don't see why people should not sing whatever they want to sing” — unless they can’t carry a tune, Suu Kyi deadpanned, drawing laughter from the crowd.
“I hope the whole [Pussy Riot] group will be released as soon as possible,” she said on a more serious note.
“Was there anything in their song that was nasty to other people? Yes, individual people can take offense, but the [government] cannot. The government doesn’t count as people. [It] must be prepared to take criticism. Governments who can’t take criticism will never turn out to be good governments.”

Links :: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/suukyi-to-young-people-dont-just-sit-in-front-of-the-net/2012/09/21/5c970228-03f5-11e2-9b24-ff730c7f6312_blog.html?wprss=rss_world

What links Aung San Suu Kyi and Pussy Riot?


She does. There are other things too, like the fact that both Aung San Suu Kyi and Pussy Riot have been the subject of high-profile Amnesty campaigns and that their respective imprisonments by governments they had angered made headline news across the world and perhaps even their iconic head gear. But the most significant link was Aung San Suu Kyi’s call for the release of the three band mates last night, at an Amnesty event in Washington. The Times clocked it, they may well have been watching the event streamed live online, see here (£).
Yesterday the Burmese Nobel laureate took to the stage for a question and answer session that Amnesty had organised to inspire young people in America to take action for human rights. She adds her voice to the thousands of Amnesty supporters across the world who are concerned about the musicians. And here in the UK, it was our most talked about campaign on social media ever, last week.
If showing your support for Pussy Riot on facebook and twitter isn’t enough, from Monday a t-shirt designed by celebrated visual artist David Shrigley will be available to buy, in striking pink.
It’s available from www.amnestyshop.org.uk - and all proceeds from sales will go towards Amnesty’s human rights work. I wonder if we’ll see Daw Suu Kyi sporting one.

links:: http://www2.amnesty.org.uk/blogs/press-release-me-let-me-go/what-links-aung-san-suu-kyi-and-pussy-riot

Could Myanmar (Burma) have Southeast Asia's first 'green president'?

President Thein Sein still has a long way to go in assuring citizens, investors, and international donors that the country is on the right track, but with the right development assistance, Myanmar has the chance to succeed in sustainable development where many of its neighbors have failed.
We are used to politicians and world leaders describing their intentions to put environmental concerns on their policy agendas. Sadly, we’re equally used to seeing them not deliver. Yet one world leader – Thein Sein, president of Myanmar (Burma) – is currently delivering on an environmental agenda almost unnoticed. Next week he arrives in New York to address the United Nations General Assembly.

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Monday, August 20, 2012

Glossary of Economic Terms and Concepts


Absolute advantage - The ability to produce something with fewer resources than other producers would use to produce the same thing
Alternatives - Options among which to make choices.

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Balance of trade - The part of a nation's balance of payments that deals with merchandise (or visible) imports or exports.
Bank, commercial - A financial institution accepts checking deposits, holds savings, sells traveler's checks and performs other financial services.
Barter - The direct trading of goods and services without the use of money.
Benefit - The gain received from voluntary exchange.
Bond - A certificate reflecting a firm's promise to pay the holder a periodic interest payment until the date of maturity and a fixed sum of money on the designated maturity date.
Business (firm) - Private profit-seeking organizations that use resources to produce goods and services.

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Capital - All buildings, equipment and human skills used to produce goods and services.
Capital resources - Goods made by people and used to produce other goods and services. Examples include buildings, equipment, and machinery.
Change in demand - see Demand decrease and Demand increase.
Change in supply - see Supply decrease and Supply increase.
Choice - What someone must make when faced with two or more alternative uses of a resource (also called economic choice).
Circular flow of goods and services (or Circular flow of economic activity) - A model of an economy showing the interactions between households and business firms as they exchange goods and services and resources in markets.
Collateral - Anything of value that is acceptable to a lender to guarantee repayment of a loan.
Command economy - A mode of economic organization in which the key economic functions--what, how, and for whom--are principally determined by government directive. Sometimes called a "centrally planned economy."
Comparative advantage - The principle of comparative advantage states that a country will specialize in the production of goods in which it has a lower opportunity cost than other countries.
Competition - The effort of two or more parties acting independently to secure the business of a third party by offering the most favorable terms.
Complements - Products that are used with one another such as hamburger and hamburger buns
Consumers - People whose wants are satisfied by consuming a good or a service.
Consumption - In macroeconomics, the total spending, by individuals or a nation, on consumer goods during a given period. Strictly speaking, consumption should apply only to those goods totally used, enjoyed, or "eaten up" within that period. In practice, consumption expenditures include all consumer goods bought, many of which last well beyond the period in question --e.g., furniture, clothing, and automobiles.
Consumer spending - The purchase of consumer goods and services.
Corporation - A legal entity owned by stockholders whose liability is limited to the value of their stock.
Costs - See Opportunity Cost
Costs of production - All resources used in producing goods and services, for which owners receive payments.
Craftsperson - A worker who completes all steps in the production of a good or service.
Credit - (1) In monetary theory, the use of someone else's funds in exchange for a promise to pay (usually with interest) at a later date. The major examples are short-term loans from a bank, credit extended by suppliers, and commercial paper. (2) In balance-of-payments accounting, an item such as exports that earns a country foreign currency.
Criteria - Standards or measures of value that people use to evaluate what is most important.

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Decision making - Choosing from alternatives the one with the greatest benefit net of costs.
Deflation - A sustained and continuous decrease in the general price level.
Demand - A schedule of how much consumers are willing and able to buy at all possible prices during some time period.
Demand decrease - A decrease in the quantity demanded at every price; a shift to the left of the demand curve.
Demand increase - An increase in the quantity demanded at every price; a shift to the right of the demand curve.
Determinants of demand - Factors that influence consumer purchases of goods, services, or resources.
Determinants of supply - Factors that influence producer decisions about goods, services, or resources.
Distribution - The manner in which total output and income is distributed among individuals or factors (e.g., the distribution of income between labor and capital).
Division of labor - The process whereby workers perform only a single or a very few steps of a major production task (as when working on an assembly line.)
Durables - Consumer goods expected to last longer than three years.

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Earn - Receive payment (income) for productive efforts.
Economic growth - An increase in the total output of a nation over time. Economic growth is usually measured as the annual rate of increase in a nation's real GDP.
Economic system - The collection of institutions, laws, activities, controlling values, and human motivations that collectively provide a framework for economic decision making.
Economic wants - Desires that can be satisfied by consuming a good or a service. Some economic wants range from things needed for survival to things that are nice to have.
Employment - See Full employment
Entrepreneur - One who organizes, manages, and assumes the risks of a business or enterprise.
Entrepreneurship - The human resource that assumes the risk of organizing other productive resources to produce goods and services.
Equilibrium price - The market clearing price at which the quantity demanded by buyers equals the quantity supplied by sellers.
Exchange - Trading goods and services with others for other goods and services or for money (also called trade). When people exchange voluntarily, they expect to be better off as a result.
Exchange rates - The rate, or price, at which one country's currency is exchanged for the currency of another country.
Excise Tax - Taxes imposed on specific goods and services, such as cigarettes and gasoline.
Exports - Goods or services produced in one nation but sold to buyers in another nation.

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Factors of production - Resources used by businesses to produce goods and services.
Federal Reserve System - The central bank and monetary authority of the United States.
Final goods - Products that end up in the hands of consumers.
Fiscal policy - A government's program with respect to (1) the purchase of goods and services and spending on transfer payments, and (2) the amount and type of taxes.
Functions of money - The roles played by money in an economy. These roles include medium of exchange, standard of value, and store of value.
Full employment - A term that is used in many senses. Historically, it was taken to be that level of employment at which no (or minimal) involuntary unemployment exists. Today economists rely upon the concept of the natural rate of unemployment to indicate the highest sustainable level of employment over the long run.

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Goods - Objects that can satisfy people's wants.
Government - National, state and local agencies that use tax revenues to provide goods and services for their citizens.
Gross domestic product (GDP) - The value, expressed in dollars, of all final goods and services produced in a year.
Gross domestic product (GDP), real - GDP corrected for inflation.

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Households - Individuals and family units which, as consumers, buy goods and services from firms and, as resource owners, sell or rent productive resources to business firms.
Human capital - The health, strength, education, training, and skills which people bring to their jobs.
Human resources - The quantity and quality of human effort directed toward producing goods and services (also called labor).

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Incentives - Factors that motivate and influence the behavior of households and businesses. Prices, profits, and losses act as incentives for participants to take action in a market economy.
Imports - Goods or services bought from sellers in another nation.
Income - The payments made for the use of borrowed or loaned money.
Increase in productivity - When the same amount of an output can be produced with fewer inputs; more output can be produced with the same amount of inputs; or a combination of the two.
Inflation - A sustained and continuous increase in the general price level.
Interdependence - Dependence on others for goods and services; occurs as a result of specialization.
Interest rates - The price paid for borrowing money for a period of time, usually expressed as a percentage of the principal per year.
Investment in capital goods - Occurs when savings are used to increase the economy's productive capacity by financing the construction of new factories, machines, means of communication, and the like.
Investment - The purchase of a security, such as a stock or bond.
Investment in capital resources - Business purchases of new plant and equipment.
Investment in human capital - An action taken to increase the productivity of workers. These actions can include improving skills and abilities, education, health, or mobility of workers.

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Labor force - That group of people 16 years of age and older who are either employed or unemployed.
Labor market - A setting in which workers sell their human resources and employers buy human resources.
Labor union - A group of employees who join together to improve their terms of employment.
Land - Natural resources or gifts of nature that are used to produce goods and services.
Law of demand - The principle that price and quantity demanded are inversely related.
Law of supply - The principle that price and quantity supplied are directly related.
Loss - Business situation in which total cost of production exceeds total revenue; negative profit.

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Market - A setting where buyers and sellers establish prices for identical or very similar products, and exchange goods and/or services.
Market economy - An economic system where most goods and services are exchanged through transactions by private households and businesses. Prices are determined by buyers and sellers making exchanges in private markets.
Medium of exchange - One of the functions of money whereby people exchange goods and services for money and in turn use money to obtain other goods and services.
Mixed economy - The dominant form of economic organization in noncommunist countries. Mixed economies rely primarily on the price system for their economic organization but use a variety of government interventions (such as taxes, spending, and regulation) to handle macroeconomic instability and market failures.
Monetary policy - The objectives of the central bank in exercising its control over money, interest rates, and credit conditions. The instruments of monetary policy are primarily open-market operations, reserve requirements, and the discount rate.
Money - Anything that is generally accepted as a medium of exchange with which to buy goods and services, a good that can be used to buy all other goods and services, that serves as a standard of value, and has a store of value.
Money market - A term denoting the set of institutions that handle the purchase or sale of short-term credit instruments like Treasury bills and commercial paper.

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National debt - The net accumulation of federal budget deficits.
National income - The amount of aggregate income earned by suppliers of resources employed to produce GNP; net national product plus government subsidies minus indirect business taxes.
Natural resources - "Gifts of nature" that are used to produce goods and services. They include land, trees, fish, petroleum and mineral deposits, the fertility of soil, climatic conditions for growing crops, and so on.
Non-durables - Consumer goods expected to last less than three years.
Non-price determinants of supply - The factors that influence the amount a producer will supply of a product at each possible price. The non-price determinants of supply are the factors that can change the entire supply schedule and curve.
Normal profit - The minimum payment an entrepreneur expects to receive to induce the entrepreneur to perform entrepreneurial functions.
Normative economics - Normative economics considers "what ought to be"--value judgments, or goals, of public policy. Positive economics, by contrast, is the analysis of facts and behavior in an economy, or "the way things are."

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Opportunity cost - The next best alternative that must be given up when a choice is made.

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Physical capital - Manufactured items used to produce goods and services.
Price - The money value of a unit of a good, service, or resource
Prices - The amounts that people pay for units of particular goods or services.
Private goods - A commodity that benefits the individual. An example is bread, which, if consumed by one person, cannot be consumed by another person. (See public goods.)
Producers - People who use resources to make goods and services (also called workers).
Production - The making of goods available for use; total output especially of a commodity or industry.
Productive resources - All natural resources (land), human resources (labor), and human-made resources (capital) used in the production of goods and services.
Productivity - The ratio of output (goods and services) produced per unit of input (productive resources) over some period of time.
Profit - The difference between total revenues and the full costs involved in producing or selling a good or service; it is a return for risk taking.
Property tax - Taxes paid by households and businesses on land and buildings.
Public goods - A commodity whose benefits are indivisibly spread among the entire community, whether or not particular individuals desire to consume the public good. For example, a public-health measure that eradicates smallpox protects all, not just those paying for the vaccinations. These goods are often provided by the government. To be contrasted with private goods.

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Quantity demanded - The amount of a product consumers will purchase at a specific price.
Quota - A legal limit on the quantity of a particular product that can be imported or exported.
Quantity supplied - The amount of a product producers will produce and sell at a specific price.

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Resources - All natural, human, and human-made aids to production of goods and services (also called productive resources).
Revenue - Payments received by businesses from selling goods and services.

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Sales tax - Taxes paid on the goods and services people buy.
Save - Set aside earnings (income) for a future use.
Saving - Occurs when individuals, businesses, and the economy as a whole do not consume all of current income (or output).
Scarcity - The condition that results from the imbalance between relatively unlimited wants and the relatively limited resources available for satisfying those wants.
Services - Activities that can satisfy people's wants.
Shortage - The situation resulting when the quantity demanded exceeds the quantity supplied of a good or service, usually because the price is for some reason below the equilibrium price in the market.
Specialists - People who produce a narrower range of goods and services than they consume (also called specialized workers).
Specialization - The situation in which people produce a narrower range of goods and services than they consume.
Spend - Use earnings (income) to buy goods and services.
Standard of living - A minimum of necessities, comforts, or luxuries held essential to maintaining a person or group in customary or proper status or circumstances.
Standard of value - One of the functions of money whereby the value of goods and services is expressed in money terms (prices).
Stock - A certificate reflecting ownership of a corporation.
Store of value - One of the functions of money allowing people to save current purchasing power to buy goods and services in a future time period.
Substitutes - Products that can replace one another such as butter and margarine.
Supply - A schedule of how much producers are willing and able to sell at all possible prices during some time period.
Supply decrease - A decrease in the quantity supplied at every price; a shift to the left of the supply curve.
Supply increase - An increase in the quantity supplied at every price; a shift to the right of the supply curve.
Surplus - The situation resulting when the quantity supplied exceeds the quantity demanded of a good or service, usually because the price is for some reason below the equilibrium price in the market.

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Tariff - A tax on an imported good.
Taxes - Required payments of money made to governments by households and business firms.
Total cost - Cost of resources used in producing a product multiplied by the quantity produced.
Total revenue - Selling price of a product multiplied by the quantity demanded.
Trade - See Exchange.
Trade agreement - An international agreement on conditions of trade in goods and services.
Trade-off - Giving up some of one thing to get some of another thing.
Traditional economy - A mode of economic organization which borrows economic decisions made at an earlier time or by an earlier generation

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Unemployment - The situation in which people are willing and able to work at current wage rates, but do not have jobs.

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Wages - The payment resource earners receive for their labor.
Work - Employment of people in jobs to make goods or services.
Workers - See Producers.

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Terms and definitions from the following sources:
  • Coulson, E., McCorkle, S. (1994). Master curriculum guide in economics: Teaching strategies 5-6. New York: Economics America.
  • McEachern, W. A. (1994). Economics: A contemporary introduction, 3rd ed. Cincinnati, Ohio: South Western Publishing Co.
  • Phipps, B. J., Hopkins, M. C., Littrell, R. L. (1993). Master curriculum guide in economics: Teaching strategies K-2. New York: Economics America.
  • Samuel, C., Stout, R. L. (1994). Master curriculum guide in economics: Teaching strategies 3-4. New York: Economics America.
  • Samuelson, P.A., Nordhaus, W. D. (1995). Economics, 15th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
  • Saunders, P., Gilliard, J., (editors). (1995). A framework for teaching basic economic concepts: With scope and sequence guidelines. New York: Economics America.
  • Suitor, M. C., et al. (1996). Focus: Middle school economics. New York: Economics America.
  • Webster's ninth new collegiate dictionary. (1991). Springfield, Mass.: Merriam-Webster, Inc.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Cold War Timeline

Cold War Timeline
This History Timeline has been developed to provide a 'snapshot' of the famous people and events during this historical time period. Important dates in a fast, comprehensive, chronological, or date order providing an actual sequence of important past events which were of considerable significance to the famous people involved in this time period.


1945Defeat of Germany and Japan February 4-11: Yalta Conference meeting of FDR, Churchill, Stalin - the 'Big Three'
Soviet Union has control of Eastern Europe. The Cold War Begins

May 8: VE Day - Victory in Europe. Germany surrenders to the Red Army in Berlin
July: Potsdam Conference - Germany was officially partitioned into four zones of occupation. 

August 6: The United States drops atomic bomb on Hiroshima (20 kiloton bomb 'Little Boy' kills 80,000)

August 8: Russia declares war on Japan

August 9: The United States drops atomic bomb on Nagasaki (22 kiloton 'Fat Man' kills 70,000)

August 14 : Japanese surrender End of World War II

August 15: Emperor surrender broadcast - VJ Day
 

1946February 9: Stalin hostile speech - communism & capitalism were incompatibleMarch 5 : "Sinews of Peace" Iron Curtain Speech by Winston Churchill - "an "iron curtain" has descended on Europe"
March 10 - Truman demands Russia leave Iran
July 1: Operation Crossroads with Test Able was the first public demonstration of America's atomic arsenal
July 25: America's Test Baker - underwater explosion
 

1947ContainmentMarch 12 : Truman Doctrine - Truman declares active role in Greek Civil War

June : Marshall Plan is announced setting a precedent for helping countries combat poverty, disease and malnutrition

September 2 - Rio Pact - U.S. meet 19 Latin American countries and created a security zone around the hemisphere
 

1948ContainmentFebruary 25 : Communist takeover in Czechoslovakia
March 2: Truman's Loyalty Program created to catch Cold War spies
March 17: Brussels Pact organized to protect Europe from communism

June 24 : Berlin Blockade begins lasting 11 months
 

1949ContainmentApril 4 : NATO ratified
May 12 : Berlin Blockade ends
29 August : Russia tested its first atomic bomb

October 1 : Communist Mao Zedong takes control of China and establishes the People's Republic of China

December 1 - Chiang Kai-shek moved to Formosa and created Nationalist government
 

1950January 30 - Truman approved H-bomb developmentFebruary : Joe McCarthy begins Communist witch hunt and loyalty tests

June 24: Korean War begins. Stalin supports North Korea who invade South Korea equipped with Soviet weapons
 

1951January 12 : Federal Civil Defense Administration establishedApril 11 - Truman fires MacArthur
 

1952A-bombs developed by Britain

1953March 17-June 4 Nuclear Arms Race atomic test series of 11 explosions at Nevada Test SiteApril 15: RAND report on the "Vulnerability of U. S. Strategic Air Power"
July : Korean War ends
December 8: Ike's Atoms for Peace speech
 

1954March 1: H-bomb Castle-Bravo test March : KGB established

CIA helps overthrow unfriendly regimes in Iran and Guatemala

July : Vietnam split at 17th parallel
 

1955May : Warsaw Pact formed

1956June 29: USSR sent tanks into Poznan, Poland, to suppress demonstrations by workersSeptember 4: USSR sent military aid to Afghanistan
October - November : Rebellion put down in Communist Hungary.
October 29: Suez Crisis began with Israeli attack led by Moshe Dayan against Egyptian forces in the Sinai
Egypt took control of Suez Canal
 

1957August 26: Vostok rocket launched 1st ICBM October 4 : Sputnik launched into orbit
November 3: Sputnik II launched - Laika died in space
 

1958January 31: Explorer I launchedJuly : NASA began Mercury project using Atlas rocket
November : Khrushchev demands withdrawal of troops from Berlin
 

1959January : Cuba taken over by Fidel Castro

September : Khrushchev visits United States; The Kitchen Debate
 

1960A-bombs developed by FranceMay : Soviet Union reveals that U.S. spy plane was shot down over Soviet territory

November : John F. Kennedy elected President of USA

December 19: Cuba openly aligns itself with the Soviet Union and their policies.
 

1961April : Bay of Pigs invasion see Cuban Missile Crisis Timeline

August 13 : Berlin border is closed

August 17 : Construction of Berlin Wall begins
 

1962U.S. involvement in Vietnam increases see Vietnam War TimelineOctober : Cuban Missile Crisis see Cuban Missile Crisis Timeline
 

19631963: July : Nuclear Test Ban Treaty ratified

1963: November : President Kennedy assassinated in Dallas, Texas
 

1964August : Gulf of Tonkin incident - see Vietnam War TimelineOctober: A-bombs developed by China
 

1965April : U.S. Marines sent to Dominican Republic to fight Communism

July : Announcement of dispatching of 200,000 U.S. troops to Vietnam
 

1966B-52s Bomb North Vietnam

1967The US Secretary of Defence Robert McNamara admits that the US bombing raids had failed to meet their objectives
 

1968January : North Korea captured U.S.S. PuebloPresident Johnson does not run for the presidency and Richard Nixon Elected President of the USA

August : Soviet Red Army crush Czechoslovakian revolt
 

1969July 20 : Apollo 11 lands on the moon

1970April : President Nixon extends Vietnam War to Cambodia

1971Publication of the Pentagon Papers

1972February: President Richard Nixon visits ChinaJuly : SALT I signed
 

1973January : Cease fire in Vietnam between North Vietnam and United States

September : U.S. supported coup overthrows Chilean government

October : Egypt and Syria attack Israel; Egypt requests Soviet aid
 

19741974: August : President Nixon resigns

1975April 17 : North Vietnam defeats South Vietnam which falls to Communist forces

1976February: Soviet and Cuban forces help to install Communist government in Angola.

1979January: U.S. and China establish diplomatic relations.July : SALT II signed

November : Shah of Iran overthrown; Iranian Hostage Crisis

December: Soviet forces invade Afghanistan
 

1980August: Polish shipyard workers strike Solidarity Union formed. Strike leader Lech Walesa is elected as the head of Solidarity
 

1983President Reagan proposes Strategic Defence Initiative

1983: October : U.S. troops invades and overthrows regime in Grenada
 

1985Mikhail Gorbachev becomes leader of the Soviet Union initiating a campaign of openness called "glasnost" and restructuring called "perestroika"
 

1986October : President Reagan and Gorbachev resolve to remove all intermediate nuclear missiles from Europe
 

1987October : Reagan and Gorbachev agree to remove all medium and short-range nuclear missiles

1989January : Soviet troops withdraw from Afghanistan

June : Poland becomes independent

September : Hungary becomes independent

November : Berlin Wall is demolished and East Germany allows unrestricted migration to West Germany

December : Communist governments fall in Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and Rumania
Decline of the Soviet empire
 

1990March : Lithuania becomes independent

May 29 : Boris Yeltsin elected as President of Russia

October 3 : Germany reunited
 

1991August : End of Soviet Union and the Cold War Ends


Thursday, June 28, 2012

ASEAN ROLE IN MYANMAR

ASEAN ROLE IN MYANMAR
By David Raja Marpaung S.Ip M.Def


CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION


I.  BACKGROUND
           
Burma has the largest number of armed ethnic insurgencies of all the member states in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as a well-established civil opposition to the ruling military regime. The ethnic insurgencies began in 1948 while civil opposition has grown more open during the last decade. There are seven officially recognised ethnic groups in Burma apart from the Burman majority: the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni (Kayah), Mon, Rakhine (Arakanese) and Shan. This, however, fails to take into account a bewildering number of subgroups speaking over 100 languages. This ethnic diversity and these ethno-nationalist aspirations, combined with the communist movement, composed alarming problems.
Independence on 4 January 1948, named the Union of Burma, with Sao Shwe Thaik as its first President and U Nu as its first Prime Minister. Democratic rule ended in 1962 when General Ne Win led a military coup d'état. He ruled for nearly 26 years and pursued policies under the rubric of the Burmese Way to Socialism. Between 1962 and 1974, Burma was ruled by a revolutionary council headed by the general, and almost all aspects of society (business, media, production) were nationalized or brought under government control (including the Boy Scouts). In an effort to consolidate power, General Ne Win and many top generals resigned from the military and took civilian posts and, from 1974, instituted elections in a one party system. Between 1974 and 1988, Burma was effectively ruled by General Ne Win through the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP).
            In 1988, unrest over economic mismanagement and political oppression by the government led to widespread pro-democracy demonstrations throughout the country known as the 8888 Uprising. Security forces killed thousands of demonstrators, and General Saw Maung staged a coup d'état and formed the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). In 1989, SLORC declared martial law after widespread protests. The military government finalized plans for People's Assembly elections on 31 May 1989. SLORC changed the country's official English name from the "Union of Burma" to the "Union of Myanmar" in 1989.
            In May 1990, the government held free elections for the first time in almost 30 years. The National League for Democracy (NLD), the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, won 392 out of a total 489 seats, but the election results were annulled by SLORC, which refused to step down. Led by Than Shwe since 1992, the military regime has made cease-fire agreements with most ethnic guerilla groups. In 1992, SLORC unveiled plans to create a new constitution through the National Convention, which began 9 January 1993. In 1997, the State Law and Order Restoration Council was renamed the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). On 23 June 1997, Myanmar was admitted into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

PESTEL Analysis of Myanmar SItuation
            To describe the current situation in the Myanmar, this analysis is using PESTEL analysis, consists of politic, economy, social, technology, environment, and legal aspect of the country, as follow:
  • Politic and Legal
      Governed by military junta (1962-now), with full of coercion and no democracy
      Many pro-democracy activists, civil societies, and opposition elements have been suppressed, detained, and jailed without fair judiciary process (including monks), and some of them were killed
      Criticised and pressed by Western countries, as well as UN (and ASEAN for some extends), but relatively close with India, China, and Russia (in 2007, the SC draft resolution about human rights violation was vetoed by Russia and China)
      Extremely corrupt state (rank 178 of 180 countries in 2008 Transparency Internationals CPI)
      Junta using anti-subversive and internal security constitution to destruct the democratisation process
      2008 constitution referendum promised to held Election in 2010 and perform “democracy” in the future[1]
  • Economy
      Until 1960’s, Myanmar was the wealthiest country in Southeast Asia and the world’s largest exporter of rice
      Since governed by junta regime, average rate of annual GDP growth only 2,9%, GDP per capita USD 233 and inflation rate reach 30-60%
      Banned investment and trading from US and other Western countries
      Foreign investment comes primarily from China, Singapore, South Korea, India, and Thailand (India is the biggest investor in natural resources and industry).
      Lack of infrastructures, except in Thai border, trough which the main illegal drugs are exported
      World’s 2nd largest producer of opium, and gaining national income through illegal drugs (some banks received 40% commission from money laundry)—some of them collaborated with MOGE (national oil company)[2]
  • Social
      55 million population, with over 295,800 refugees exist along Indian, Bangladeshi and Thai borders while several thousand are in Malaysia.
      135 distinct ethnic groups, with 108 languages. Bamar is the biggest ethnic, with 68% of population and Buddhist is the biggest religion.
      Human Development Index 0,583 (rank 132)
      Minority ethnic and religious persecution to join the army or get government jobs, the main route to success in the country.
      UN identified large human rights violation, including massive rape and killing of Karen minority ethnic by military .
      Military junta restrict the international humanitarian assistances to keep the people’s dependence from government.
      There are 101 universities, 12 institutes, 9 degree colleges and 24 colleges in Burma, a total of 146 higher education institutions[3].
  • Technology
      Technological advanced is very low, as well as the economic growth
      Importing most of its weapons from Russia, Ukraine, China and India.
      Technological investment from India include oil and gas exploration, IT, hydropower, and construction of ports and buildings.
      The country is building a research nuclear reactor near May Myo (Pyin Oo Lwin) with help from Russia[4].
  • Environment
      Cyclone Nargis disaster in May 2008 was used by the regime to performed referendum (as barter of the humanitarian aid) to support government’s constitution[5].


I.2. PROBLEMS

What are the ASEAN’s roles in implementing political stability in Myanmar?  And what are the obstacles for the ASEAN to solve the problem in Myanmar?

I.3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

International Organization
Before we analyze and discuss the ASEAN role in Myanmar regarding the human rights issue. The international organization theory will be very relevant to help us to explain the issue. Clive Archer, quoted the Maurice Duverger – a politics expert – and Philip Selznick – an American sociologist – in his book International Organizations, mentioned that an international organization represents a form of institution that refers to a formal system and rules and objectives, a rationalized administrative instrument and which has ‘a formal technical and material organization: constitutions, local chapters, physical equipment, machines, emblems, letterhead stationary, a staff, an administrative hierarchy and so forth’.[6]
            International organization does not usually refer to an organization which has members from different regions. This we give an example to help you to understand the meaning. United Nations (UN) is absolutely an international organization. Beside it represents the definition as we mentioned before, it also has so many members from any regions. But Association of South East Asian Nation (ASEAN) can be called as an international also even though it’s also a regional organization. The member of ASEAN is not from any regions, it’s only from the South East Asian region, like the name.
            But the most important elements that any organizations must have are membership, aim, and structure.[7] Those are the requirement to typifying the international organization. Wallace and Singer, the politics experts, stated that an international organization should draw its membership from two or more sovereign states. It is acceptable [the amount of member] in preference to the Yearbook of International Organizations. But Grigorii Morozov – an author of the Soviet period – had his own choice and it’s three. The second element is aim. The organization is established with the aim of pursuing the common interests of the members. And the last element is structure. The organization should have its own formal structure of a continuous nature established by an agreement such as a treaty or constituent document.
            So, from the explanations of those elements, we can define an international organization as a formal, continuous structure established by agreement between members (governmental and/or non governmental) from two or more sovereign states with the aim of pursuing the common interest of the membership.[8]
            Another important thing in the international organization theory is the role of it. There are three major roles can be indentified. Instrument is the first one. Perhaps the most usual image of the role of international organizations is that of an instrument being used by its members for particular ends. This is particularly the case with Intergovernmental Organizations, where the members are sovereign states with power to limit independent action by international organizations.[9] This is absolutely the role that international organizations can play depends on the interests of their member states. States establish and develop international organizations to achieve objectives that they cannot achieve on their own. But on the other hand, states will not permit international organizations to do things that constitute, in the eyes of these states, interference in their internal affairs.[10]
            A second image of the role of international organizations is that of their being arenas or forums within which actions take place. In this case, the organizations provide meeting places for member to come together to discuss, argue, cooperate or disagree. Arenas in themselves are neutral. They can be used for a play, a circus, or even a fight.
            The last role is as an actor. The crucial word here is independent. In this case, the organizations can act on the world scene without significantly affected by outside forces. They [organizations] can make decisions, can act contrary to the wishes of some members and can affect the action of other members.[11] Usually, this role is played by the international non-governmental organizations.

Regionalism
Regionalism itself can be simply defined as the formation of interstate groupings on the basis of regions. There are so many definitions of regionalism, but related to the ASEAN, the definition from Joseph Nye which said that a limited number of states that linked together by a geographical relationship and by a degree of mutual interdependence[12] is more understandable. Furthermore, there are so many varieties in terms of regionalism, and focusing on ASEAN as believed as successful regionalism in Southeast Asia, we only concern on one appropriate theory which is constructivism. The key concern of constructivist is the relationship between ideas, identities and material interests, which change through interaction of agents (states) and structure. Identities and interests are socially and politically constructed[13].

National Interest
To analyze the international behavior or state’s and an organization’s behavior, a national interest concept will be very helpful. Every state will produce and do their policies to achieve their national interests. It can be said that national interest is the aim of every state’s and organization’s actions. As Professor Banyu Perwita said in his book, Pengantar Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, national interest also can be explained as a fundamental aim and determining factor which guides the decision makers in a state to formulate the foreign policy.
A state usually has more than one national interest. Its national interest includes military realm, economic realm, political realm, and also cultural realm. But the primary (generally) is state’s survival and its national security. In this globalization era, not only states survival and national security, economic growth is also another national interest which can be included to the primary of national interest/
National interests are not static. They can change depending on time, place and circumstances. The national interest of almost any country in this world may be learned from their foreign policy.  So, the national interest and foreign policy influence each other.



CHAPTER II
ANALYSIS


II.1. ASEAN & Myanmar

As we know from the earliest time, Myanmar’s joining of ASEAN was not a smooth process. Many judgments against the admission Myanmar into ASEAN came not only from the external but also from internal ASEAN itself regarding the undemocratic system by the military junta and human rights violations issue. Despite that situation, Myanmar realized that in the age of regionalism and globalization, it’s not possible to Myanmar to isolate itself. Therefore seeking to become a member of regional group which won’t exploit Myanmar’s weak situation through The ASEAN way and non interference principal become a priority for Myanmar at that time. Indeed, become a member of ASEAN still not able to deal with political change and peaceful democratic transition in Myanmar. ASEAN has been obliged for years of its regional and international implications regarding Myanmar’s Junta refusal to work in a peaceful way democratic transition and also several human violations that done by the repressive Junta, but up until now, there’s no much actions that have been done by ASEAN in order to resolve this problem.
The traditional respect for the principle of non-interference in the affairs of states, have come to the fore in Southeast Asia's politics[14]. Moreover, despite the legal character of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in Southeast Asia, ASEAN prefers an informal approach to resolve conflicts, placing an emphasis on relationships rather than formal structures, and these soft approaches called the ASEAN way. Related to the Myanmar’s issue, ASEAN still avoid sanction mechanism towards Myanmar. According to the 42nd ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Thailand, Abhisit, Prime Minister of Thailand said that soft way (ASEAN Way) approach is more productive rather than sanction mechanism that will make Myanmar become more isolated[15]. Also noted in the media, the Junta said that Myanmar condemns any interventions in the domestic politics in Myanmar and that’s not appropriate with the ASEAN values[16]. Unfortunately, the human rights abuses in Myanmar has made this kind of principles needs to be looked up since it has not produce any results so far. Non interference principle limits the ASEAN’s actions; meanwhile to solve Myanmar’s problem through Summit Diplomacy and consensus building is not enough realizing that Myanmar itself refused to discuss its problems with ASEAN.
Expressing full support and urged Myanmar’s Government to give Ibrahim Gambari full access[17], is not the only way to solve this problem. Furthermore, this mechanism needs continuity in terms of what actions that ASEAN could take. However, in this point, non-interference principle limits the actions and the collective actions are hard to be done since there’s still lack of common vision in the members itself. So, it’s sadly to say that, since the admission of Myanmar as a part of ASEAN members, there’s not much that ASEAN can do. It’s not only because the non interference principle but also there’s lack of commitment from the members regarding concern on human rights issue and democracy. The key of change in Myanmar is ASEAN; because United Nations, US, and European Union have shown strong impose towards Myanmar. ASEAN should move beyond its traditional non-intervention policy, as we can see in the making of ASEAN charter which has reconsidered the ASEAN way and the formation of Human Rights body should be put as a prominent concern of ASEAN members. If ASEAN is unable to prove any relevance action related to the efforts to reconsider the non interference principle in Myanmar case, then the only hope is to wait for the appearance of changing from Myanmar itself.
            The role that ASEAN plays in Myanmar is clearly not as an actor. It’s proved by no resolution or any other concrete actions ASEAN did. In this issue, we can conclude that ASEAN is playing the arena / forum role. There are many meetings and many forums that ASEAN did to discuss the problem. The ASEAN meeting in Hua Hin, Thailand, last February is an example. There were two main agendas, human right issue and the impact of global financial crisis. From the ASEAN Secreatry General Surin Pitsuwan to ASEAN head person, Thailand Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, from Indonesia Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda to Malaysia Foreign Minister were talking about Myanmar issue and its human rights violation.[18]
In 1998, the grouping agreed to use “enhanced interaction,” which calls for countries to comment on domestic issues that portrayed the ASEAN grouping in a negative light[19]. Again in 1998, the ASEAN Vision 2020 paper confirmed that the group sought an equilibrium between national sovereignty and regional resilience. Where regional resilience is undermined by a rigid interpretation of national sovereignty, compromise in the interests of regional stability should be taken under consideration[20]. In 2000, ASEAN established the “ASEAN troika” as a mechanism to implement “enhanced interaction” and address issues “…likely to disturb regional peace and harmony, with the potential to affect ASEAN in political or security terms.” Then, in 2003, ASEAN proposed the ASEAN Security Community, which directly stated that “ASEAN Member Countries shall promote political development…to achieve peace, stability, democracy and prosperity in the region.[21]” Thus, those who express caution over engaging critically on Myanmar, citing the “ASEAN norm of non-interference prohibits it” are overlooking fundamental ASEAN documents, as well as changes that have taken place in the region since 1967.
Last year, Singapore Foreign Affair Minister, George Yeo also suggested keeping Myanmar within ASEAN’s table.[22] It’s definitely a strong evidence that ASEAN is playing its role as an arena / forum to discuss the problem in Myanmar.  But not only as a forum, is ASEAN playing its role as an instrument. The question is whose instrument? It’s Myanmar’s. Myanmar can use the ASEAN’s basic principle, non-interference principle, to avoid ASEAN’s participation. It clearly shows us that Myanmar doesn’t like if its domestic problem is interfered by any other parties, ASEAN in particular. So, here is the example of Myanmar’s rejection on ASEAN’s participation. Last May, there was 17th ASEAN-EU Ministerial Meeting in Pnom Penh, Cambodia. U Maung Myint, the Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Myanmar stated, “Each and every nation has its own internal problems. Taking action against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi……is a matter of internal legal proceedings. As Myanmar is a sovereign nation, it is not fair and proper to interfere in its internal affairs”.[23]
We also get an evident of this role from a journal on Pasific review. Burma failed to respond to the ‘ASEAN way’ and rather instrumentalized the organization for its own purposes: to reduce dependency on China, gain a more respectable stature in international relations, and win ASEAN over as an advocate for the resumption of Western and multilateral development aid which was frozen after the bloody repression of the popular uprising in August and September 1988.[24]


II.2. Regionalism in Southeast Asia

The states cooperation more or less based on the formation of collective identities shared principles, values and traditions, and related to ASEAN case, we can see that The ASEAN Way as the norms of ASEAN has become the core values of ASEAN political behavior. This is proven by the policy pursued by ASEAN called ‘constructive engagement ‘towards Myanmar which is a non conferential strategy to embrace a reclusive country such Myanmar. ASEAN believed through that constructive approach such as a policy dialogue and persuasion also without any threat or sanction, the political change could be stimulated. This non conferential strategy as mentioned before proved that ASEAN is consistent with its shared principles, values and traditions, as the same with constructivist way. Yet, the subsequent debate over ASEAN’s collective identity is the principle of non interference. Moreover, the constructive approach through the ASEAN way failed to produce political change in Myanmar. ASEAN expectations to induce gradual political change in Burma through ‘peer group pressure’ did not materialize. Even after admission to ASEAN, Burma failed to respond to the ‘ASEAN way’ and rather instrumental zed the organization for its own purposes[25]
The role that ASEAN plays in Myanmar is clearly not as an actor. It’s proved by no resolution or any other concrete actions ASEAN did. In this issue, we can conclude that ASEAN is playing the arena / forum role. There are many meetings and many forums that ASEAN did to discuss the problem. The ASEAN meeting in Hua Hin, Thailand, last February is an example. There were 2 main agendas, human right issue and the impact of global financial crisis. From the ASEAN Secreatry General Surin Pitsuwan to ASEAN head person, Thailand Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, from Indonesia Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda to Malaysia Foreign Minister were talking about Myanmar issue and its human rights violation.[26]
Last year, Singapore Foreign Affair Minister, George Yeo also suggested keeping Myanmar within ASEAN’s table.[27] It’s definitely a strong evidence that ASEAN is playing its role as an arena / forum to discuss the problem in Myanmar.
But not only as a forum, is ASEAN playing its role as an instrument. The question is whose instrument? It’s Myanmar’s. Myanmar can use the ASEAN’s basic principle, non-interference principle, to avoid ASEAN’s participation. It clearly shows us that Myanmar doesn’t like if its domestic problem is interfered by any other parties, ASEAN in particular. So, here is the example of Myanmar’s rejection on ASEAN’s participation. Last May, there was 17th ASEAN-EU Ministerial Meeting in Pnom Penh, Cambodia. U Maung Myint, the Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Myanmar stated, “Each and every nation has its own internal problems. Taking action against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi……is a matter of internal legal proceedings. As Myanmar is a sovereign nation, it is not fair and proper to interfere in its internal affairs”.[28]
We also get an evident of this role from a journal on Pasific review. Burma failed to respond to the ‘ASEAN way’ and rather instrumentalized the organization for its own purposes: to reduce dependency on China, gain a more respectable stature in international relations, and win ASEAN over as an advocate for the resumption of Western and multilateral development aid which was frozen after the bloody repression of the popular uprising in August and September 1988.[29]


II.3. Myanmar National Interest

Foreign policy of Myanmar toward ASEAN become more communicative, but in the end Myanmar still reject any political intervention in terms of Aung San Suu Kyi’case , human rights violation , and democratization process. National interests of Myanmar take large part on economic side, as its country try to open cooperation with ASEAN member countries and also China and India. But other national interests such community building also took part in in its national interest.
The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) is the most important actors in Myanmar’s political economy. The SPDC has been trying to improve its popularity among the people, through enhanced publicity for its state-building activities and an anti-corruption drive among civil servants. This latter initiative, however—together with attempts to raise revenue by clamping down on tax evasion, the sudden move of the administrative capital to Naypyitaw and a lack of transparent, predictable or sound economic policies—is currently further slowing the nation’s economy. Besides that, these are some SPDC Policy to take interest from Myanmar people[30].
  1. Reconvening of the National Convention that has been adjourned since 1996
  2.  After the successful holding of the National Convention, step-by-step implementation of the process necessary for the emergence of a genuine and disciplined democratic system
  3. Drafting of a new constitution in accordance with detailed basic principles laid down by the National Convention
  4. Adoption of the constitution through a national referendum.
  5. Holding of free and fair elections for pyithu hluttaws [legislative bodies] according to the new constitution.
  6. Convening of hluttaws [assemblies] attended by hluttaw members in accordance with the new constitution.
  7. Building a modern, developed and democratic nation by the state leaders elected by the hluttaw, and the government and other central organs formed by the hluttaw

Stakeholder Analysis
A stakeholder analysis is a technique you can use to identify and assess the importance of key people, groups of people, or institutions that may significantly influence the success of your activity or project[31].

Recent Condition
Oversight Actors
Government
Military
Civilian
Impacts
1. No function of parliament
2.No press freedom
3. Civil society are in limited access and under-intimidated

1.Corruption
2.Authoritarian
3.Power supremacy
4.Military as super power has dual function

1.Using violence
2. Dual-function
3.Running business

1.Frustrated by law and politics
2. Under coercion and injustice
3.Race conflict

1.No law supremacy
2.Social and security unrest
3.Destructing economic development



Transformation The Stakeholders
Oversight Actors
Government
Military
Civilian
Impacts
  1. Objective
  2. Cover both side
  3. Pressure to government
  4. Research & suggestion
  5. Law supremacy endorsement
 
  1.  Law enforcement
  2. Controlling military
  3. Security protection
  4. Give education and guidelines
  5. Eradicate corruption
  6. Increase military welfare

  1. No violent
  2. Obeying law
  3. Professional
  4. Hand over the case to government

  1. Obeying law
  2. No anarchy
  3. Using legal and political channel

  1. Law supremacy
  2. Social and political order
  3. Public trust
  4. SSR
  5. Human security
  6. Supporting economic development/sustainability


Position, Interest, and Needs
This analysis is one of classical ideas in conflict resolution to distinguish between position held by parties and their lying interest a needs[32]. Analyzing interest and needs can be a way to achieve consensus.
Interest Analysis

Needs Analysis



Benefit Management
Benefits Management in is concerned with the beginning and end of project management and surrounds each project. Every change project and program should at least end with a measurable contribution to a specific benefit. In Myanmar we offer 4 projects, that can be do with Military, Politic and Legal, Socio Cultural, and economy approach.
            The Projects are build democracy and good governance, Redesign vision also concept of military position and function in government, Strengthening Regional and International Diplomacy Lobby in Myanmar, and strengthening the social society.



CHAPTER III
CONCLUSION

The Southeast Asian leaders promise to step up the fight against terrorism, but they failed to denounce the State-Sponsored Terrorism in the region. The region will never be secure while one of its members ( the notorious Burmese military regime) is holding the 50 millions hostages , while a few live in the penthouse and do as they please. The ASEAN should not harbor the terrorist regime in the region. The ASEAN should seek to pressure and isolate state sponsors so they will renounce the use of terrorism, end support to terrorists, and bring terrorists to justice for past crimes. Likewise, the ASEAN establishes an ASEAN community of "three pillars" – the ASEAN Security Community, ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Socio-cultural Community -- "for the purpose of ensuring durable peace, stability and shared prosperity in the region. Without political stability in one of its nations because of State-Sponsored Terrorism, the economic development in the region is impossible and so do prosperity in the region. The ASEAN must reconsider their actions in the face of the mounting international demands regarding on the Burma's issue. In retrospect of the past regime changes in the region ( ie Philippine, Indonesia, East Timor, Cambodia ), the whole world has witnessed the ineffectual approaches of ASEAN and its hypocritical policy. Despite that, building pressure on Burma must be indeed intense. We must continuously urge international communities, governments and institutions to keep up the pressure and to use their power and influence to stop the ongoing political oppression, violation of human rights inside Burma, and waging war against the people. The political intervention from the
U.N Security Council is an urgent need to resolve the Burma's political impasse. The pressure is the only language the regime's thugs understand and hear. The language may be too strong for Asian leaders who want to sit on the fence in the Burma's issue, but we must push them to stand up for what is right and wrong in the Burma's conflict. We must urge the ASEAN to continue pressing for democratic reforms in Burma.




REFERENCE

Archer, Clive. 2003. International Organizations. 3rd Edition. New York: Routledge
W.R. Bohning. The Role and Functions of International Organizations in the Field of Migrant Workers. In the Regional Workshop on the International Labour Organization (ILO) and International Labour Migration by the Canadian Human Rights Foundation, the Ateneo Human Rights Centre, and the Lawasia Human Rights Committee. January 1999.
Fawcett, Louise and Andrew Hurrell ( 1995). Regionalism in World Politics. New York : Oxford University Press
Rulan, Jurgen ( 2000). ASEAN and the Asian crisis: theoretical implications and practical consequences for Southeast Asian regionalism.  The Pacific Review, Vol. 13 No. 3 2000: 421–451
http://beritasore.com/2007/11/23/menanti-ratifikasi-asean-charter/ 
Haacke, Jurgen (2008) ASEAN and Political Change in Myanmar: Towards A Regional Initiative. Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol 30, No 3 (2008)
http://www.antara.co.id/view/?i=1235801759&c=ART&s=. Accessed at July 29, 2009. 1.34 pm
Royal Thai Embassy, Thailand and Human Rights, Washington, DC, available from http://www.thaiembdc.org/socials/hr0200.html
ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, ASEAN Vision 2020, Hanoi, Vietnam, 16 Dec 1998
ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, ASEAN Security Community Plan of Action, Bali, Indonesia, 7 Oct 2003
Rulan, Jurgen (2000). ASEAN and the Asian crisis: theoretical implications and practical consequences for Southeast Asian regionalism.  The Pacific Review, Vol. 13 No. 3 2000: 421–451
http://www.antara.co.id/view/?i=1235801759&c=ART&s=. Accessed at July 29, 2009. 1.34 pm
Rulan, Jurgen (2000). ASEAN and the Asian crisis: theoretical implications and practical consequences for Southeast Asian regionalism.  The Pacific Review, Vol. 13 No. 3 2000.
Monique Skidmore and Trevor Wilson, Myanmar, The State, Community, and Environment.  Canbera: Australia National University, 2007
Stakeholder Analysis. http://erc.msh.org/quality/ittools/itstkan.cfm
Oliver Ramsbotham, Contemporary Conflict Resolution, Cambridge: Polity Press , 2005
Bozeman, B., and J. Melkers, eds. 1993. Evaluating R&D impacts: Methods and practice. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.




[1]              Burma. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bm.html (last accessed on 5:19 PM 7/28/2009)
[2]              Ibid.
[3]  Ibid.
[4]              Ibid.
[5]              Ibid.
[6] Archer, Clive. 2003. International Organizations. 3rd Edition. New York: Routledge, p. 2
[7] Ibid, p.33
[8] Ibid.
[9] Ibid, p.68
[10] W.R. Bohning. The Role and Functions of International Organizations in the Field of Migrant Workers. In the Regional Workshop on the International Labour Organization (ILO) and International Labour Migration by the Canadian Human Rights Foundation, the Ateneo Human Rights Centre, and the Lawasia Human Rights Committee. January 1999.
[11] Op Cit, p.73-80
[12] Fawcett, Louise and Andrew Hurrell ( 1995). Regionalism in World Politics. New York : Oxford University Press. Page 11
[13] Rulan, Jurgen ( 2000). ASEAN and the Asian crisis: theoretical implications and practical consequences for Southeast Asian regionalism.  The Pacific Review, Vol. 13 No. 3 2000: 421–451
[16] http://beritasore.com/2007/11/23/menanti-ratifikasi-asean-charter/ 
[17] Haacke, Jurgen (2008) ASEAN and Political Change in Myanmar: Towards A Regional Initiative. Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol 30, No 3 (2008)
[18] http://www.antara.co.id/view/?i=1235801759&c=ART&s=. Accessed at July 29, 2009. 1.34 pm
[19] Royal Thai Embassy, Thailand and Human Rights, Washington, DC, available from http://www.thaiembdc.org/socials/hr0200.html
[20] ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, ASEAN Vision 2020, Hanoi, Vietnam, 16 Dec 1998
[21] ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, ASEAN Security Community Plan of Action, Bali, Indonesia, 7 Oct 2003
[24] Rulan, Jurgen (2000). ASEAN and the Asian crisis: theoretical implications and practical consequences for Southeast Asian regionalism.  The Pacific Review, Vol. 13 No. 3 2000: 421–451

[25] Ibid.
[26] http://www.antara.co.id/view/?i=1235801759&c=ART&s=. Accessed at July 29, 2009. 1.34 pm
[29] Rulan, Jurgen (2000). ASEAN and the Asian crisis: theoretical implications and practical consequences for Southeast Asian regionalism.  The Pacific Review, Vol. 13 No. 3 2000: 421–451

[30] Monique Skidmore and Trevor Wilson, Myanmar, The State, Community, and Environment.  Canbera: Australia National University, 2007
[31] Stakeholder Analysis. http://erc.msh.org/quality/ittools/itstkan.cfm
[32] Oliver Ramsbotham, Contemporary Conflict Resolution, Cambridge: Polity Press , 2005
[33] Bozeman, B., and J. Melkers, eds. 1993. Evaluating R&D impacts: Methods and
practice. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
LINK : http://indonesiadefenseanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/asean-role-in-myanmar.html